scholarly journals A Survey of the Use of National Weather Service Forecasts by Television Weather Forecasters in the United States

1986 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 155-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis M. Driscoll
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Weather Forecasters ◽  
Weather Service

scholarly journals Intercomparison of Mixing Layer Heights from the National Weather Service Ceilometer Test Sites and Collocated Radiosondes

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Micheal Hicks ◽  
Belay Demoz ◽  
Kevin Vermeesch ◽  
Dennis Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mixing Layer ◽  
The United States ◽  
Arid Climate ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Layer Height ◽  
Hot Arid Climate ◽  
Mixing Layer Height ◽  
Sky Conditions ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractA network of automated weather stations (AWS) with ceilometers can be used to detect sky conditions, aerosol dispersion, and mixing layer heights, in addition to the routine surface meteorological parameters (temperature, pressure, humidity, etc.). Currently, a dense network of AWSs that observe all of these parameters does not exist in the United States even though networks of them with ceilometers exist. These networks normally use ceilometers for determining only sky conditions. Updating AWS networks to obtain those nonstandard observations with ceilometers, especially mixing layer height, across the United States would provide valuable information for validating and improving weather/climate forecast models. In this respect, an aerosol-based mixing layer height detection method, called the combined-hybrid method, is developed and evaluated for its uncertainty characteristics for application in the United States. Four years of ceilometer data from the National Weather Service Ceilometer Proof of Concept Project taken in temperate, maritime polar, and hot/arid climate regimes are utilized in this evaluation. Overall, the method proved to be a strong candidate for estimating mixing layer heights with ceilometer data, with averaged uncertainties of 237 ± 398 m in all tested climate regimes and 69 ± 250 m when excluding the hot/arid climate regime.

scholarly journals Usefulness of the United States National Weather Service Radar Display as Rated by Website Users

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 673-691 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle E. Saunders ◽  
Kevin D. Ash ◽  
Jennifer M. Collins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Weather Radar ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Perceived Usefulness ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Weather radar is now widely viewed by the general public in the United States via television, computers/tablets, and smartphones. Anyone can consult near-real-time maps and animations of weather radar data when weather conditions are a factor. However, the usefulness of weather radar data for each user depends on a complex interaction of factors. There have been few studies providing conceptual arguments and empirical data to better understand what the most important factors are and to comprehend patterns of public weather radar use across the United States. The first part of this research provides a basic conceptual framework for research investigating the usefulness of weather radar displays as a source of weather information and as a decision aid. The second part aims to uncover several factors that influence the perceived usefulness rating of the National Weather Service (NWS) website’s weather radar display at both national and regional levels using variables gathered from the 2014 NWS customer satisfaction survey alongside relevant geographic and climatological variables. Data analyses include spatial clustering and ordinal regression utilized within a generalized linear model methodology. Overall, respondents who are more familiar with the NWS and their products, as well as those who indicate they are more likely to take action based on information provided by the NWS, are more likely to find the NWS radar display useful. Geographically, the NWS radar display is most useful to persons residing in the southern United States. Lightning is the most important hazard associated with higher radar usefulness ratings.

Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Compared to Operational, Consensus, and Weighted Model Output Statistics

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1034-1047 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Baars ◽  
Clifford F. Mass
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Minimum Variance ◽  
Model Output ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Model Output Statistics ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Model output statistics (MOS) guidance has been the central model postprocessing approach used by the National Weather Service since the 1970s. A recent advancement in the use of MOS is the application of “consensus” MOS (CMOS), an average of MOS from two or more models. CMOS has shown additional skill over individual MOS forecasts and has performed well compared to humans in forecasting contests. This study compares MOS, CMOS, and WMOS (weighting component MOS predictions by their past performance) forecasts of temperature and precipitation to those of the National Weather Service (NWS) subjective forecasts. Data from 29 locations throughout the United States from 1 August 2003 through 1 August 2004 are used. MOS forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GMOS), Eta (EMOS), and Nested Grid Model (NMOS) models are included, with CMOS being a simple average of these three forecasts. WMOS is calculated using weights determined from a minimum variance method, with varying training periods for each station and variable. Performance is analyzed at various forecast periods, by region of the United States, and by time/season, as well as for periods of large daily temperature changes or large departures from climatology. The results show that CMOS is competitive or superior to human forecasts at nearly all locations and that WMOS is superior to CMOS. Human forecasts are most skillful compared to MOS during the first forecast day and for periods when temperatures differ greatly from climatology. The implications of these results regarding the future role of human forecasters are examined in the conclusions.

Weather Analysis and Forecasting

1979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederick L. Crosby
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Weather Service

I appreciate the opportunity to talk to the 25th Conference for a few minutes today on the procedures and programs used by the National Weather Service to provide a meteorological service to the United States. Paper published with permission.

An Analysis of 2016-2018 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the contiguous United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan S. Bentley ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Barry R. Bowers ◽  
Justin G. Gibbs ◽  
Steven E. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractPrevious work has considered tornado occurrence with respect to radar data, both WSR-88D and mobile research radars, and a few studies have examined techniques to potentially improve tornado warning performance. To date, though, there has been little work focusing on systematic, large-sample evaluation of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings with respect to radar-observable quantities and the near-storm environment. In this work, three full years (2016–2018) of NWS tornado warnings across the contiguous United States were examined, in conjunction with supporting data in the few minutes preceding warning issuance, or tornado formation in the case of missed events. The investigation herein examines WSR-88D and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis data associated with these tornado warnings with comparisons made to the current Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) guidance.Combining low-level rotational velocity and the significant tornado parameter (STP), as used in prior work, shows promise as a means to estimate tornado warning performance, as well as relative changes in performance as criteria thresholds vary. For example, low-level rotational velocity peaking in excess of 30 kt (15 m s−1), in a near-storm environment which is not prohibitive for tornadoes (STP > 0), results in an increased probability of detection and reduced false alarms compared to observed NWS tornado warning metrics. Tornado warning false alarms can also be reduced through limiting warnings with weak (<30 kt), broad (>1nm) circulations in a poor (STP=0) environment, careful elimination of velocity data artifacts like sidelobe contamination, and through greater scrutiny of human-based tornado reports in otherwise questionable scenarios.

scholarly journals Temperatures and Cold Damage to Small Fruit Crops Across the Eastern United States Associated with the April 2007 Freeze

HortScience ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 1643-1647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Renee Warmund ◽  
Patrick Guinan ◽  
Gina Fernandez
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
The United States ◽  
Plant Tissues ◽  
Crop Loss ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Fruit Crops ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Small Fruit ◽  
Weather Forecasters

An unprecedented freeze occurred between 4 and 10 Apr. 2007, causing extensive crop loss across a large area of the United States. This event occurred late in the spring and temperatures were unusually low for an extended period. Low-temperature injury on small fruit plants was reported in 21 states. Missouri and Arkansas experienced the highest estimated percentages of crop loss of grape (Vitis spp.), strawberry (Fragraria ×ananassa Duch.), blueberry (Vaccinium spp.), and blackberry (Rubus subgenus Rubus Watson). Kentucky and Tennessee also reported high percentages of small fruit crop loss. Temperatures preceding the freeze event in the affected region were unusually warm and many of the crops were at a more advanced stage of growth than they would have been under more usual conditions. Although frost/freeze warnings were issued, the terminology used by different weather forecasters was inconsistent. Growers used various cold protection methods, but these were generally ineffective because of the stage of plant development and/or the advective nature of the freeze. Actual grape and blueberry crop losses may not be known for several years because of secondary injury to plant tissues from various pathogens.

Measuring Tornado Warning Reception, Comprehension, and Response in the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 863-880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph T. Ripberger ◽  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
Wesley W. Wehde ◽  
Jinan N. Allan ◽  
Carol Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Performance Management ◽  
Source Code ◽  
The United States ◽  
Psychometric Tests ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Significant Development ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Information Domain

Abstract Social criteria are important to achieving the mission of the National Weather Service. Accordingly, researchers and administrators at the NWS increasingly recognize a need to supplement verification statistics with complementary data about society in performance management and evaluation. This will require significant development of new capacities to both conceptualize relevant criteria and measure them using consistent, transparent, replicable, and reliable measures that permit generalizable inference to populations of interest. In this study, we contribute to this development by suggesting three criteria that require measurement (forecast and warning reception, comprehension, and response) and demonstrating a methodology that allows us to measure these concepts in a single information domain—tornado warnings. The methodology we employ improves upon previous research in multiple ways. It provides a more generalizable approach to measurement using a temporally consistent set of survey questions that are applicable across the United States; it relies on a more robust set of psychometric tests to analytically demonstrate the reliability of the measures; and it is more transparent and replicable than previous research because the data and methods (source code) are publicly available. In addition to describing and assessing the reliability of the measures, we explore the sensitivity of the measures to geographic and demographic variation to identify significant differences that require attention in measurement. We close by discussing the implications of this study and the next steps toward development and use of social criteria in performance management and evaluation.

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